Am I crazy to buy this hotel?
Let's find out with real math instead of the seller's.
Is the demand real, does the math work, what is it actually worth. Three answers, with the model you can change yourself.
A feasibility study for anyone buying, building or opening a hotel, from someone who has run the front desk and priced the rooms. I rebuild the seller's numbers line by line until you can defend every one of them to your lender and to yourself. You get the written study, a model you keep, and every number explained until it makes sense. One flat fee, quoted up front. If the answer is do not buy it, you will hear that from me too.
6 funded feasibility projects · 8 hotels opened · one flat fee, quoted up front
of year-one cash going out, behind a year-one profit of $38K. The Plan shows both lines; a pro forma shows one.
a year of income beyond the room rate, found on one walk of the property and priced from local benchmarks.
on one set of numbers: keep it, convert it, expand it, sell it whole, sell it by the unit. Compared on one page.
I have run the front desk, priced the rooms and opened eight hotels. I build your model myself, then walk you through every number until you could defend it to a lender. The decision stays yours.
- funded feasibility projects
- 6
- funded feasibility projects
- hotels opened
- 8
- hotels opened
- properties worked with
- 50+
- properties worked with
- revenue a year managed
- $10M+
- revenue a year managed
Forty-five minutes on the listing, the deal or the idea. If a full study is more than the deal needs, I will say so, and you will have paid nothing to hear it.
Your hotel is already open and running? Start with the free audit.
Built for a decision
you have not made yet.
- You are looking at a listing and the numbers feel too good.
- You own a building and wonder whether it should be a hotel.
- You need numbers a lender or a partner will accept.
- You are comparing two or three properties and want one model for all of them.
- Your hotel is already open and running. Start with the free audit instead.
- You want a stamp on a decision that is already made.
Move the numbers.
Watch the value move.
A 38-key conversion in the California desert, from a Plan delivered in September 2026. Move the rooms, the rate, the occupancy and the labor, and watch the year, the months and the value move with them. The one you keep does this on your property.
| Rooms revenue | $2,622,093 |
| Resort fee, $27 per occupied night | $249,283 |
| Ancillary income, net | $492,000 |
| Total revenue | $3,363,376 |
| Booking-site commissions, 40% of bookings at 18% | ($188,791) |
| Room costs, $16 per occupied night | ($147,724) |
| Labor | ($585,000) |
| Administrative and general, 6% | ($201,803) |
| Sales and marketing, 5% | ($168,169) |
| Utilities and common areas, $6,000 per key | ($228,000) |
| Technology and insurance | ($42,600) |
| Property tax, 1.1% of an $8M basis | ($88,000) |
| Furniture and equipment reserve, 4% | ($134,535) |
| Owner NOI, self-managed | $1,578,756 |
Margin 47% of revenue. NOI yield on the $8M basis plus the $787K improvements program: 18.0%. Unlevered, pre-tax, before any management fee.
October to September, the desert's fiscal year. April is the peak, at the festivals; August runs at a sixth of it. A model that averages the year misses both.
| Rate \ Occupancy | 59% | 66% | 73% |
|---|---|---|---|
| $256 | $1.18M | $1.37M | $1.56M |
| $284 | $1.37M | $1.58M | $1.79M |
| $312 | $1.55M | $1.78M | $2.01M |
The starting numbers are the stabilized-year, self-managed projection from a Plan delivered in September 2026 for a 38-key conversion in the California desert, shared with the owner's permission and without the property's name. The full model carries about sixty inputs, each with its source; this slice holds the operating ones at the delivered values and lets you move the six that matter most.
Keep it, convert it, expand it, sell it whole, sell it by the unit: capital in, year-one profit and cash, year-five profit.
Owner-level economics on one set of assumptions, from the delivered Plan. Unlevered and pre-tax. The two year-one lines differ because the hotel paths absorb their capital in year one: NOI is the operating result, cash flow is what the owner actually sees.
| Path | Capital in | Year 1 NOI | Year 1 cash | Year 5 NOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Keep the master lease No capital. Income drifts as dues rise against flat rent. | $0 | $693K | $693K | $611K |
Hotel, 38 keys, operated for the owner Convert and reposition the footprint controlled today. | $1.29M | $38K | ($1.17M) | $1.27M |
Hotel, 52 keys, operated for the owner The above plus buying the remaining units for full control. | $4.96M | ($42K) | ($2.53M) | $1.73M |
Sell as one block Investor pricing at the listing ask nets about $6.6M to $7.1M in one closing. Below the $8M basis. | ||||
Sell down, unit by unit Recent unit comps of $220K to $269K, about two sales a month. Net proceeds of about $8.7M over about 19 months. Clears basis. | ||||
Swipe sideways for the full table
The model also answers the question the owner did not ask: the most the owner could pay per added unit to go from 38 to 52 keys is about $139K at an 8% return and $204K at 6%, against a $195K ask. Year 5 NOI on the hotel paths is after every cost, including our fee.
Five things a pro forma
leaves out.
A broker's pro forma is a sales document. Hold the one in your inbox up to these five tonight. Every number below comes from what the delivered Plan caught.
- 1
The year, averaged
A pro forma shows one average year. In the delivered Plan, August earned about a sixth of April. A hotel pays its bills in August too.
- 2
Booking-site fees
Expedia and Booking.com keep a cut of every room they sell. In the delivered Plan: 18% on 40% of the bookings, about $189,000 a year.
- 3
Money set aside for furniture
Beds, TVs and towels wear out on a schedule. The Plan sets aside 4% of revenue every year for them, about $135,000 on the delivered model.
- 4
Labor, counted for real
Every position, its hours, its wage and the taxes on top. In the delivered Plan: $585,000 for nine and a half full-time people.
- 5
The year you spend the money
Year-one profit and year-one cash are different lines. In the delivered Plan: $1.17 million of cash going out, behind a $38,000 profit.
Is the demand real? Does the math work?
What is it worth?
The Plan answers three questions in order, from someone who has run the front desk and priced the rooms, and it is not trying to sell you anything.
Six funded hospitality projects with full pro formas and sensitivity scenarios. The numbers from the most recent one are on this page, above.
Is the demand real?
Everyone arrives with a vision. The Plan gets the whole concept out of your head and tests it against the market: the hotels you would compete with, what actually drives people there, the seasons, and whether the market can carry the concept at the rate it needs, whether that is luxury boutique, extended stay, select service or highly designed mid-scale. Then a rate and occupancy projection for the property's real positioning, not the one the seller wants you to see.
Does the math work?
Purchase or build cost, the money you borrow and what it costs, a stabilized year-by-year model, and what happens to your loan coverage if rate or occupancy is off by ten percent. The model is interactive and yours: move labor, marketing or rate yourself and watch the bottom line move in real time.
What is the property worth?
Valued three ways, by income, by comparable sales and by cost, reconciled to one number and a range. And which of the three your lender will actually believe.
Four steps. Your decision at the end.
Forty-five minutes. The listing, the deal or the idea, and whether the Plan is the right size for it. If a full study is more than the deal needs, we say so.
One flat fee, quoted on the call and agreed in writing before work starts. The number does not change once the work starts.
The seller's documents, the market, the comparable properties, the lender's terms, all timestamped. A short intake from you; the rest is ours.
The study and the model, walked through on a call until every number is one you understand and could defend to a lender. The decision is yours. What you leave with is the confidence to make it.
If the answer is yes and you are building or opening, the Plan becomes the first chapter of The Modern Hotel Launch: the budget, the rate plan and the positioning are already done. If you are buying a hotel that is already open, the Plan hands off to the free audit and Revenue Management Services.
One flat fee, quoted up front. Three questions answered in order, and every number made to make sense.
The study, the model,
and every answer in it.
- Capital required, with the year-one operating result and the year-one cash flow on separate lines, because the year you spend the capital is not the year you judge the hotel.
- The stabilized year after every cost, for each path you are weighing: keep it as it is, convert it, expand it, sell it whole, sell it down.
- What the property earns with us and without us, side by side.
- The breakeven rate and occupancy against your alternative, and how far the market is from it.
- The most you can pay per added room, or for the property, at the return you want.
- Unlevered and pre-tax, so your lender and your accountant can layer their own terms on top.
Inputs, market data, a profit and loss per path, the opening budget, labor, extra income, sensitivity, the summary and the sources.
- 1Inputs and assumptionsAbout sixty levers in one place, each with its source and a confidence grade. Blue cells are yours to change. Yellow cells are the ones still waiting on an answer, a quote or the city.
- 2Market dataThe seasonal rate and occupancy curve, verified comp rates, and the short-term rental comps.
- 3One P&L per pathSixty months, five years, hotel-standard lines from room statistics to owner NOI after every cost.
- 4Opening budget and capexLine by line, in tiers, per key, with the code items marked as placeholders until the city has spoken.
- 5Labor modelEvery position, hours, wage and burden, sized for how the hotel will actually run.
- 6Ancillary incomeEvery stream beyond the room rate, priced from named local benchmarks.
- 7SensitivityOwner NOI across a grid of rate and occupancy, the breakeven rate against your alternative, and the most you can pay per added room.
- 8The summary pageEvery path side by side: capital, cash flow by year, stabilized NOI, return on the switch, owner involvement, key risks.
- 9SourcesA register of every document the model touched, with its date.
The workbook behind the numbers on this page: a Plan delivered in September 2026 for an owner weighing five paths on one property, shared with the owner's permission and without the property's name.
$492,000 a year, found on one walk of the property.
Nine income streams found on the property walk, each priced from named local benchmarks. Net of platform fees and margins.
Pool day passes $35 · 1,500 a year | $39,400 |
Daybeds and cabanas $150 · 200 a year | $22,500 |
Private buyouts $6,000 · 30 a year | $153,000 |
Family events $1,500 · 30 a year | $38,250 |
Athletic club memberships $900 a year · 50 members | $40,500 |
Market lounge, premium vending $2,000 a month · one | $12,000 |
Commercial laundry service $300,000 gross · one | $120,000 |
Pet fees $35 a night · 1,383 nights | $48,400 |
Late checkout and early check-in $50 · 355 stays | $17,700 |
| Total ancillary, net | $492,000 |
Every stream is run by the same on-site guest experience team that runs the front of house. Fifteen percent of revenue, found before the first guest checked in.
Adam Ramirez.
Operator first.
Adam has spent 10+ years opening, repositioning and running independent and boutique hotels, many of them in Palm Springs, and still prices hotels every morning. Ramirez Hospitality Group is how an owner gets that work without hiring for it.
The method is the product and it lives in your own accounts: every rate plan, rule and piece of data belongs to you. A second contact is named on every account. If you wanted to take it over tomorrow, you could.
- ·The Paloma Resort
- ·Twist Palm Springs
- ·Limón Palm Springs
- ·Sands Hotel & Spa
- ·The Stardust
- ·Dunes Palm Springs
- ·The Creekstone Inn
- ·Town & Desert Hospitality
- ·Bellevue Oasis
- ·Float Palm Springs
- ·Saguaro Hotel
- ·8 hotels opened from concept to ribbon-cutting
- ·4 properties repositioned after renovation or ownership transition
- ·50+ independent and boutique hospitality properties worked with
- ·$10M+ in annual hotel revenue managed
- ·6 funded feasibility projects with full pro formas
Asked by buyers,
answered plainly.
My broker already gave me a pro forma.
A broker's pro forma is a sales document. The Plan answers three questions in order, from someone who has run the front desk and priced the rooms, and it is not trying to sell you anything.
How much does a hotel feasibility study cost?
The Modern Hotel Plan is one flat fee, quoted on the call and agreed in writing before any work starts. It does not change once the work starts. Portfolios and unusual projects are quoted individually.
What is the difference between the Plan and the free audit?
The audit scores a hotel that is already open, across seven areas, and is free. The Plan is for a decision that has not been made yet: buying, building or converting a property that may not be running as a hotel at all. If you are buying a hotel that is open today, start with the audit; it is free and it will tell you whether the Plan is worth paying for.
Do I need this before I make an offer?
Before you sign a purchase agreement, break ground, or convert a building, yes. For a first purchase, or any deal with a lender involved, the study is what turns your walk-through into numbers a bank will accept.
What if the numbers do not work?
Then you found out before you committed the rest, which is the cheapest lesson in this business. The model is yours. Plug the next listing into it and run it again.
I am looking at more than one property.
Good. The model is built once and it is yours to keep. Every listing after the first is a new set of inputs in the same model, so shopping two or three properties means paying for the model once, and the comparison across them is where the decision gets easy.
How do you value a hotel or motel?
Three ways, then reconciled to one number and a range. By income: the steady-year profit, divided by a market cap rate; the method most used for an open hotel, and the one most sensitive to whether the projection is honest. By comparable sales: price per room and revenue multiples from recent sales nearby; a sanity check, weak on its own for a one-of-a-kind property. By cost: what it would cost to build the same thing today, less wear; most useful for new construction or a motel-to-boutique conversion with no history yet. The spreadsheet gives you a range. Knowing which end of it is real comes from having run the front desk and priced the rooms.
Tell me about
the deal.
Five fields, then pick a time for a 45-minute call.
Book The Modern Hotel Plan
Forty-five minutes on the listing, the deal or the idea. If a full study is more than the deal needs, I will say so, and you will have paid nothing to hear it.
One flat fee, quoted on the call. Text consent is optional.